Level: Advanced
A forecast model projects expected results at different spend levels before you actually commit budget, letting you stress-test assumptions and set realistic expectations in advance.
Base Projections on Recent, Relevant Historical Data
A forecast built on outdated or unrepresentative historical performance risks setting expectations that current campaign realities won't actually support.
Build in a Range, Not a Single Point Estimate
A forecast presented as a range (optimistic, expected, conservative) is more honest and more useful than a single confident number that pretends more certainty than the data supports.
Revisit and Refine the Model Regularly
As actual results come in, comparing them against the forecast and adjusting the model's assumptions keeps future forecasts more accurate.
Next step: Use the Sales Letter Writer to when a forecast assumes a certain conversion rate at each funnel stage, make sure that assumption is actually grounded in genuinely persuasive, tested creative — not just optimism.